Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 31.047051 34.731907 39.000121 44.392869 51.151687 59.528962 71.021179
2025-04-13 27.038079 31.982611 38.314701 47.359169 60.612094 80.664025 116.852004
2025-04-20 23.338081 28.580384 35.742861 46.886841 65.304484 98.522037 179.183569
2025-04-27 21.005757 26.430905 34.238527 47.302807 71.430862 123.736806 312.679339
2025-05-04 19.316717 24.840262 33.135821 47.914913 78.178809 157.923236 681.543045
2025-05-11 17.905607 23.417905 31.980454 48.044173 84.074172 199.716741 2448.255290
2025-05-18 16.606938 21.985853 30.549981 47.256928 87.563697 242.489483 NaN
2025-05-25 15.686793 21.024437 29.739535 47.453001 93.781940 318.028528 NaN
2025-06-01 14.820588 20.053068 28.766243 47.068580 98.319164 410.306238 NaN
2025-06-08 14.036040 19.138187 27.772031 46.413139 101.817023 528.883091 NaN
2025-06-15 13.359029 18.340957 26.894537 45.834917 105.432962 707.612805 NaN
2025-06-22 12.793017 17.682287 26.197295 45.535042 110.110746 1037.802804 NaN
2025-06-29 12.153661 16.866061 25.143531 44.233399 110.413513 1365.609349 NaN
2025-07-06 12.001975 16.864921 25.639639 46.903540 130.652830 10788.531411 NaN
2025-07-13 11.532374 16.281167 24.937611 46.321892 135.109094 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 11.192469 15.901266 24.603981 46.678675 145.568061 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.899288 15.583786 24.364007 47.255026 158.722770 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 10.590144 15.218166 23.989828 47.371696 169.637062 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 10.233527 14.747357 23.356628 46.598574 173.395683 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.976851 14.444056 23.052889 46.788368 186.132340 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.695959 14.081926 22.594558 46.412102 193.923643 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 9.414681 13.705974 22.079621 45.771424 198.812249 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.156317 13.361037 21.609201 45.206262 204.346620 NaN NaN